Technical View 06 July 2010

As the US market was closed overnight and the regional equity markets were lackluster yesterday, it was pretty much the local market factors that drove the FBM KLCI. Sime Darby was pressured with heavy selling all of the sudden in the afternoon, leading the market lower by nearly 8 pts. After last Friday, two stocks in the top volume list namely Sime Darby and Sinotop, succumbed to heavy selling yesterday. As we mentioned before, we have not seen stocks facing such heavy selling among those in the top volume for many months.
The key index is continuing to go lower after creating the “Bearish Harami”. The bearish reversal pattern has been confirmed by the breakdown from the short-term uptrend line. Since then, the FBM KLCI has been trending lower, which is basically in line with what we would expect after the index violated the short-term uptrend line. The near-term technical outlook of the FBM KLCI is firmly bearish.
From the current level, the 1,298-1,303 pt-area is the immediate support while next support is seen at the 200-day MAV line, which now lies at the 1,284 pt-level. To the upside, an immediate resistance lies at the 1,307/1,308 pt-level, followed by the 1,318 pt-level.

Market Review

Below 1300. The FBM KLCI held up well in the morning session only to succumb to some selling pressure in the afternoon. Overall market breadth was negative, with the number of losers beating gainers almost 2-to-1.  Some of the major corporate headlines today are: (i) Carrefour’s operations in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand are reportedly up for sale for USD1bn; (ii) Mah Sing in a land deal to develop a piece of land in Kinrara, Selangor and (iii) Naim bags a RM40m jetty contract in Tanjung Manis, Sarawak. US markets were closed yesterday for Independence Day but European markets fell on renewed concerns over the Europenan financial crisis. We expect investors to remain on the sidelines in search of fresh leads, with the market likely to extend its range bound pattern. The start of the US reporting season next week will be closely monitored as with Bank Negara’s stance on the economy at the policy meetinglater this week.

Tekanan jualan Bursa ditutup rendah

KUALA LUMPUR 5 Julai - Harga saham di Bursa Malaysia ditutup lebih rendah hari ini selepas ditarik turun oleh tekanan jualan ke atas saham berwajaran tinggi terpilih, terutama saham kewangan dan perladangan, kata para peniaga. Indeks Komposit FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur (FBM KLCI) turun 7.94 mata untuk ditutup kepada 1,299.50. Ia dibuka turun 1.93 mata kepada 1,305.51. Seorang peniaga berkata prestasi lembap di Wall Street pada minggu lepas melembapkan kerancakan pasaran apabila para pelabur  bimbang mengenai kemajuan ekonomi global. Katanya kejatuhan saham perladangan adalah berikutan penurunan harga hadapan minyak sawit. Bagaimana pun, beliau berkata masih terdapat ruang bagi merasa optimis di dalam pasaran. Indeks Perusahaan merosot 31.75 mata kepada 2,562.52, Indeks Kewangan turun 63.65 mata kepada 11,808.58 dan Indeks Perladangan turun 8.06 mata kepada 6,175.22. Indeks FBM Emas turun 53.53 mata kepada 8,768.54, Indeks FBM Ace rugi 37.27 mata kepada 3,747.19 dan FBM70 merosot 59.24 mata kepada 8,773.81. Kaunter rugi mengatasi kaunter untung sebanyak 425 kepada 182 manakala 270 kaunter kekal tidak berubah, 484 tidak diniagakan dan 25 yang lain digantung. Jumlah dagangan merosot kepada 449.510 juta saham bernilai RM717.915 juta daripada 626.192 juta saham bernilai RM974.284 juta Jumaat lepas. Di kalangan kaunter aktif, Sinotop-OR turun 1.5 sen kepada 3.0 sen,  Talam Corp turun 0.5 sen kepada 11.5 sen, Gamuda-Waran turun 5.5 sen kepada 97.5 sen dan Integrated Rubber Corp rugi 4.5 sen kepada 59.5 sen. Perolehan di Pasaran Utama turun kepada 390.352 juta saham bernilai RM708.012 juta daripada 553.291 juta saham bernilai RM960.760 juta Jumaat lepas. Pasaran ACE meningkat kepada 40.319 juta unit bernilai RM5.645 juta daripada 37.424 juta unit bernilai RM4.701 juta sebelum ini. Perolehan waran merosot kepada 15.030 juta saham bernilai RM1.597 juta daripada 28.022 juta unit bernilai RM3.168 juta. Produk pengguna mencatatkan 70.919 juta saham diniagakan di Pasaran Utama,  produk perusahaan 62.39 juta, pembinaan 49.889 juta, dagangan dan perkhidmatan 106.240 juta, teknologi  14.506 juta, prasarana 6.489 juta, kewangan 27.863 juta, hotel 556,700, hartanah 40.694 juta, perladangan 9.257 juta, perlombongan sifar, REIT 1.438 juta dan dana tertutup 111,500.

- Bernama

Technical View 05 July 2010

The stock market’s performance has been lackluster following the creation of the “Bearish Harami” and more so after the key index violated the uptrend line. It was not an important trading day as far as the FBM KLCI is concerned as the index was trading within a very tight range. Nevertheless, a few stocks in the top-volume list succumbed to rather heavy selling pressure. To our best memory, we have not seen such phenomena for many months.

Last week, the breakdown from the short-term uptrend line basically confirmed the “Bearish Harami”. The near-term technical outlook of the FBM KLCI is firmly bearish.

To the upside, there is immediate resistance at the 1,318 pt-level, followed by the 1,335 pt-level. The 1,307/1,308 pt-level is still the immediate support for the market. Further away, watch out for the 1,298-1,303 pt-area as the next support.

Market Review

Ending lower. The FBM KLCI was lower by 1.32 points to 1,307.44 on limited buying interest due to the lack of fresh leads. Telekom Malaysia Bhd expects 6%-8% of the 750k premises to be connected to UniFi by year-end. Maybank Islamic Bhd expects 20%-30% growth for both deposits and financing for FY11 following the improved economic environment. Lafarge SA may sell its stake in Lafarge Malaysia Cement Bhd of up to 11.2%. Putrajaya Perdana Bhd was awarded a contract worth RM321.5m by The Intermark SB to complete a redevelopment project in Kuala Lumpur while Petra Energy Bhd has obtained an Islamic financing facility worth RM35m from OCBC Al Amin Bank Bhd to part finance the advances from Petra Perdana Bhd. Finally, the US markets and crude oil price ended lower following the weaker-than-expected June jobs report. Crude oil price closed USD0.81 lower to USD72.14/barrel.

Harga saham dijangka dalam jajaran sempit

KUALA LUMPUR 4 Julai - Harga saham di Bursa Malaysia kemungkinan diniagakan di dalam jajaran yang sempit pada minggu depan dengan para pelabur dijangka terus berada di luar pasaran berikutan kemunculan banyak berita negatif di dalam ekonomi global, kata para peniaga. Dagangan kemungkinan kecil pada minggu depan berikutan wujud kebimbangan mengenai keadaan ekonomi global, kata seorang peniaga. "Tidak terdapat berita positif pada masa ini dan ini akan berterusan untuk melembapkan sentimen para pelabur. "Dengan meningkatnya kebimbangan mengenai keadaan ekonomi global, laporan pekerjaan AS akan diawasi  dengan teliti bagi melihat sama ada wujud petunjuk baharu pada kekukuhan pemulihan ekonomi AS," kata peniaga itu. Peniaga itu berkata, para pelabur turut bimbang mengenai ekonomi China selepas rentak pertumbuhan pengeluaran China bertukar perlahan pada Jun. Bagaimana pun, seorang peniaga lain berkata kerugian di Bursa tempatan dapat disekat oleh pembelian berterusan oleh dana tempatan. "Para pelabur runcit  dan dana asing akan terus mengurangkan pegangan masing-masing tetapi kerugian akan terhad kepada sekongan dari dana tempatan. Peniaga itu menjangka Indeks Komposit FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur  (FBM KLCI) akan kekal pada paras 1,300 mata pada minggu depan di tengah-tengah minat terhadap kaunter berkaitan penggunaan domestik. Saham yang diberi fokus ialah yang berkaitan pengguna, penjagaan kesihatan dan alat ganti auto yang berkaitan pengguna domestik," kata peniaga itu. "Tahap sokongan dijangka pada paras 1,300 mata manakala halangan pada paras 1,250. Para peniaga sepatutnya membuat jualan singkat indeks hadapan, kumpul dengan memberikan kedudukan opsyen dan pegang sekurang-kurangnya tiga bulan," kata peniaga itu. Bagi minggu yang baharu berakhir, FBM KLCI ditutup turun 1.32 mata kepada 1,307.44. Berasaskan Jumaat ke Jumaat, FBM KLCI turun 19.01 mata kepada 1,307.44 berbanding dengan 1,326.45 sebelum ini. Indeks FBM Emas turun 133.98 mata kepada 8,822.07 daripada 8,956.05, FBM70 turun 122.65 mata kepada 8,833.05 daripada 8,955.70 manakala Indeks FBM Ace merosot 82.44 mata kepada 3,784.46 daripada 3,866.90. Indeks Kewangan rugi 74.16 mata kepada 11,872.23 daripada 11,946.39, Indeks perladangan turun 113.37 mata kepada 6,183.28 daripada 6,296.65 manakala Indeks Perusahaan rugi 62.5 mata kepada 2,594.27 daripada 2,656.77. Sejumlah 3.024 bilion saham bernilai  RM4.822 bilion diniagakan pada minggu ini, yang turun daripada 3.596 bilion saham bernilai RM5.733 bilion sebelum ini. Jumlah dagangan di Papan Utama turun kepada 2.698 bilion saham bernilai RM4.763 bilion daripada 3.184 bilion saham bernilai RM5.643 bilion sebelum ini. Jumlah dagangan Pasaran ACE juga dicatatkan rendah kepada 161.644 juta saham bernilai RM22.126 juta daripada 240.092 juta saham bernilai  at RM40.142 juta. Waran panggilan meningkat kepada 135.217 juta unit bernilai RM16.527 juta daripada 131.467 juta unit bernilai RM21.059 juta sebelum ini. - Bernama

Technical View 02 July 2010

The FBM KLCI’s short-term uptrend line was finally violated two days ago. The breakdown basically suggests that the uptrend created following the formation of the “Bullish Engulfing” pattern has come to an end. The violation of the uptrend line also confirmed the formation of the “Bearish Harami”.
The index finally failed to hold up above the uptrend line as the market was being constantly pressured by the weakening US market. We stated previously that the US market’s near-term technical outlook will remain bearish at below the 10,700 pt-level and are now revising our nearterm technical view on the FBM KLCI back to bearish.
To the upside, there is immediate resistance at the 1,318 pt-level, followed by the 1,335 pt-level. The 1,307/1,308 pt-level is still the immediate support for the market. Further away, watch out for the 1,298-1,303 pt-area as the next support.